As happens practically every year with the onset of the dry season, the specter of drought is once again raising its head over the most densely populated parts of this vast archipelago. In several areas of East Java and Central Java, even at this early stage of the dry season, drought has already begun to threaten crops and food production levels, not to mention the daily needs of the population.

Generally speaking, the province of West Java is situated in an area of Indonesia that is blessed with a more stable climate, due to its mountainous geography. Little wonder that here too are found some of Java's most important rice granaries, such as the area around Karawang, east of Jakarta. Yet, here too, water shortages are beginning to threaten the livelihoods of farmers, especially along the province's northern coastal areas around Indramayu. Elsewhere on the island, water levels in major reservoirs have started to recede alarmingly. Any government would be unwise to ignore Nature's early warning signals.

To be sure, Indonesia is no stranger to natural catastrophes such as floods and droughts: As mentioned before, they happen almost every year. The worst thing is, though, that rice is not merely the staple food of the country's population, it is a strategic commodity, the shortage of which could have major political consequences that might destabilize the government of President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

It is this latter consideration that is the reason why the government's apparent lack of preparedness -- or, as some critics say, lack of concern -- to anticipate the situation is rather surprising and disturbing. It is not that the government doesn't know drought is threatening farmland and farmers. State Minister of Environment Nabiel Makarim, for example, acknowledged over the weekend that shrinking water catchment areas in Java are causing the water shortages that plague the island every year during the dry season.

We fully agree with the minister that environmental degradation is a major contributor to many, or most, of the natural calamities this country has suffered over the past few decades. To quote the minister: "In the last seven years, the (period of) water deficit on the island of Java has increased from four months a year to about six months. Apart from the quantity, the quality of the water available has also deteriorated".

His advice for correcting the situation is for provincial and district administration officials to inform the population of the periods when and where rains are expected to fall, "so that farmers will know what to plant". The Ministry of Agriculture reports that 200,000 hectares of paddy fields are currently adversely affected by the drought.

BPPT, the government-owned Agency for the Application and Development of Technology, is reportedly planning to resort to artificial rain to help farmers overcome the worst of the current period of drought. Some steps have reportedly been taken, both by the central authorities in Jakarta and by local administrators in the drought-stricken areas, to help farmers cope with the water shortage, although the efficacy and adequacy of those measures is doubtful.

Meanwhile, in Jakarta and in several regions threatened by drought, government authorities continue to downplay the damage that the drought might cause. Widjanarko Puspoyo, head of Bulog, the State Logistics Agency, says, for example, that his agency has a stock of 1.7 million tons of rice ready, which is enough to supply the affected areas for eight months. If necessary, three other rice-producing countries have committed themselves to deliver another 1.1 million tons that could be sent immediately, Widjanarko says.

All this is of course encouraging, provided it is true. In any case, the authorities had better be forewarned of the possible economic, social and political hazards should a serious food shortage indeed occur as a result of a prolonged dry spell this year. The experience of past decades, from the 1970s onward, should have taught us the foible of ignoring the lessons of history.