Editorial

Limits of land use

A COMMITTEE which crunched opinion on land use for the Urban Redevelopment Authority's next 10-yearly Concept Plan review did not offer startling departures from the norm. If you have to cram 5.5 million people into this island, and there is a projected land shortfall of 4,000 ha, you just have to pare off unproductive use. It recommends high-density building in all its variations, but leaving enough room for green spaces. Land for industry and infrastructure is not static, as automation and updated road designs can bring savings. Still, though the 5.5-million figure is a notional one for planning purposes to cover the next four decades or so, urban planners are no doubt aware of the variables. Three aspects of the report merit comment.

First, there would be wide public approval for the recommendation that no more golf courses be built. The 1991 Concept Plan had provided for 29 courses. The existing 22 courses use up 1,400 ha, the size of 2 1/2 Ang Mo Kios. It is not a lot of land, but 22 courses for a city-nation is plenty. To turn over more space for a minority sport when it could be put to wider public use in the form of parkland is hard to justify on the ground of social equity. The committe is right to say reclaimed land available for interim use before it is developed should 'benefit more Singaporeans'. Weekend golfers (which almost all are) need only reorientate their mental frame to regard the many golf clubs in Malaysia's southern states as part of an extended network. Then, the hankering after a 'home' club will be less acute.

The committee is on less sure ground, however, when it asks that Pulau Ubin, Tekong and the Southern Islands be not despoiled by urban and overtly commercial development. The argument that the islets' rustic charm and biodiversity in the form of coral reefs and mangrove stands be preserved is noble. Urban planners had better brace themselves for a spirited joust with environmentalists, who are an erudite breed here. But, sadly, it is romanticism that may be slipping increasingly out of reach as growth expands in all directions on the mainland. The tourism board has plans for a resort in the Southern Islands of St John's, Lazarus and Seringat. On Ubin and Tekong, reclamation is targeted to reach 3,310 ha and plans call for an HDB town and leisure developments. The offshore islands have sooner or later to fall in line. Residential development should, where possible, be done delicately to preserve the ambience. Sentosa is a fine example of conservation going hand in hand with commercial, recreational and residential planning.

Third, the need for higher gross plot ratios the committee proposes for the new Marina South Downtown (from 5 to 8) and certain HDB and private locations (2.5 to 3.65) is self-evident, given two assumptions. These are a higher residential population, including transient foreigners, and the limits of reclamation. Taller blocks are inevitable. The panel uses the term Manhattan-style housing. It offers the example of the 150-storey Millennium Tower in Tokyo. An imponderable to consider is soil stability in the new Downtown. This must influence how high up the URA can permit buildings. Osaka's Kansai airport built on reclaimed land offers a chastening thought. It has begun to sink and buckle six years after it opened, with flooding a problem. The land had settled a comfortable 10 m when work on the airport began in 1990. At its opening, planners had calculated a maximum 11.5-m subsidence after 50 years. Miscalculation? There is a lesson here.